Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms this weekend

Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms this weekend”

There is a Marginal Risk of strong severe thunderstorms Saturday followed by a more significant Enhanced Risk Sunday across much of the Coastal Empire; Slight Risk across the Lowcountry. After a round of heavy rain and gusty storms from late today into early Friday, we are turning our attention to the weekend to a more powerful storm system.

ROUND ONE: All the models I have seen show a very strong low-level jet developing across the Central Gulf Coast tomorrow night, and that will allow showers and storms to develop late tonight, and explode in coverage and intensity across South Mississippi and Southwest Alabama tonight. Two waves of stormy weather move this way: one Saturday morning and another one late Saturday evening.

Along with the heavy downpours, the threat of lightning, and the severe threats of damaging straight-line winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes will also be possible on Saturday morning.

Locally severe thunderstorms are possible as far west and north as Little Rock, Arkansas; Memphis, Tennessee; and Baton Rouge, Louisiana; during Saturday night. Gale force winds could develop in the Gulf of Mexico throughout the weekend.

All of South Mississippi is at a threat level 2 on a scale of 1 to 5 for Saturday severe weather
All of South Mississippi is at a threat level 2 on a scale of 1 to 5 for Saturday severe weather

Conditions include several rounds of thunderstorms beginning early Saturday afternoon.

Strong winds and shear makes damaging winds and isolated tornadoes more likely. The timing and strength of the significant storms has below average confidence at this time, but that will improve as we get a better look at the storm systems involved as they move over land. With some of the severe weather occurring during the overnight hours, it extremely important that you are able to receive the alerts.

A stronger cold front looks to push through by the middle of next week with a much cooler shot of air arriving by next Thursday and Friday. Highs will fall back into the 50s, and lows will head back towards freezing.

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